The Buzzing of the Poison-Flies : Money Monday

'Where solitude ends, there begins the market-place; and where the market-place begins, there begins also the noise of the great actors, and the buzzing of the poison-flies.' - Nietzsche

(Update Wednesday for A: This market bounce and possible continuation of melt-up is what I was referring to and why I mentioned to not panic on the fall off. That is, the long market change is visible, to me and others anyway and I-we dont think anything can stop it, basically but pumping up the debt can still push the current system along for a couple or a few seasons. So: sell into these rallies - which could go on for a bit - and buy less risk-on aspects directly, and diversify your portfolio. If the VXX falls back below 50, buy it as a hedge as well.)

So. I’ve begun to look for things - companies, commodities, currencies, even....whatever, ice-cream cone makers - to buy during this dada-fart period but am not finding much. Many engaging companies in those obvious growth themes like domestic upscale farm produce, international Asian food distribution particulalry Chinese, anything attached indirectly to network growth from mining to power, that are all priced  - for the most perfect of relevant worlds. Ie: ‘That company would be great if this-this-that and this happen. Then in 8 years it might actually be worth the price now.’ More: if this, this, that, this AND that happen and then company A in 8 years might - might - be relatively undervalued, the problem, obvious, that in such a scenario then another promising thing, say, a different company will have been screwed. So it, instead, will never be worth its extant market valuation. In brief: nothing, almost, risk free, to be found.  In which case there may be a thing or two, which have been nibbled at. Which for the world at large is a very good thing. 

In the past, at least until the beginning of 2012… there were pretty much always clear under-represented things to find in the markets both negatively and positively. Actually that was clear even to last week to some regards ie fiddling with volatility and shorts. But now… it’s not clear how much longer expanding debt, in the west, can keep the dada western world afloat (otherwise, if clear that indulgence sliding wealth to the wealthy was about to indefinately not work anymore, then shorting nearly everything would be an obvious. Maybe it is.) Ie, will the melt up continue, accelerate or has it ended?

As mentioned last portfolio post…. I’m more toward seeing the end on the horizon now. That expanding debt isn’t going to work. At the same time… I see most people below the age of 35 or so…dont want to live so poorly anymore and pretty much get: they’re being screwed. And have been screwed. So… the war stuff…isn’t going to work either - though in Europe there is a pronounced need for mass protest, even violent protest, to remove those currently in power to end the ongoing screwing thievery. I’m well beyond such an age and have to admit - too many people my age or older are damaging the world, living in an odd, self-refering, happy hypocrisy. Since in much of Europe I like other old folks are often called 'young' - part of the ongoing dada - it wearies me that such a large part of the shock-absorbing but diminishing upper middle class educated populace, those so very sure of their being so much smarter and more elite than those horrible, uncouth masses, is content enough to delay the eventually undeterable unrest that is direly needed, the sooner the better. 

Off the box, soap or other… as of yesterday, the market opening, my little practice portfolio is up 5.4 percent while the S&P is off 6.5 percent in 19 days. Still, the majority holding is cash. As you can see in the table: individual company stocks are more volatile than ETF’s (NUVB, Nuvation, the largest gain while INOD, Innodata, the largest decline, the first regarding cancer treatment the later AI business data) Too much trading has been done due to the heavy volatity and the development of the portfolio itself in the current contex: the starting amount is also small and bond holdings directly not allowed so... an impoortant part of a more familiar method of portfolio managment for me isn't available. In effect, using options will most likely become necessary. Rather substantial overweight in commodities and copper (TECK, COPX, and the machinery company bought Thursday as well as others) though everything has been sliced in anticipation of more important downside later market volatility - hence all the cash.

Now… I suppose I should start doing some ‘teaching’ videos, more so in Italian, regarding each individual holding. So I will. But to start here today… the first two holdings above you see, SLV and GLD are their ticker symbols (ticker symbol refers to what letters and-or numbers represent them on the ‘ticker’ tape, now pixelated screens, of the stock market,) are ETF’s - see last week's post - broadly replicating silver and gold prices. You can use other things to do the same, leveraged devices like options. But that really isn’t recommended or should not be for the vast majority of people. Anyway. First about why gold: (A, I'll put this, the video to go below, in sometime this week.)

But, as a brief partial summary: the current market turmoil is likely not merely a correction and as an asset class bubble bursting, not close to the end of its implosion. Hopefully. Because the financialization and globalization of not merely the economy but of everything, basically, or at least the the attempt to, has damaged the vast majority of people in the west and led to a dramatically rapid fall - you can use the word - of culture, science, art...and on. This began relatively quickly - Kennedy was the last president before Trump-2 to attempt to alter its direction - then in the 70's under Nixon, yes but also under Kissenger and company, then accelerated later (80's) with full-blown neoliberalism and the neocon endless wars, then reached a full blown bubble climax from the 90's following the way Asian countries resolved their dept crisis (97). China was targeted to be the next base for predatory finance, organized mostly by the same families (London) for centuries. Removing currencies from any... underlying weight, from gold convertability Bretton-Woods (71-76) as it were... pretty much guaranteed their eventual, currencies as fiat money, devaluation and implied end- including the greenback. Odd to realize but: every dominant state in the past eventually defaulted. Even Rome. Even the US (during the great depression.) Another massive default in some form is on the way relatively soon - the later it comes, the worse it willl be for most people as more of their assets will continue to be devalued then bought out out while the cost of living increases. What has been going on,in other words, but faster still as private savings becomes public debt then to be sold at pennies on the dollar or even given to a very few already historcially wealthy people.

Anyway. I'll talk through some examples on video, ie like...the 'handouts' during the lockdowns - which were gifts to Amazon and company, or the 'bailout' of Greece, actually a bailout of German and French banks via European citizens savings, etc. In the meantime, China and many other nations have made it clear very clear that gold will be a part of whatever BRICS-like currency or new financial system is to be created while most of Europe - luckily the Trump administration seems not to be - is still stuck on a notion of propping up this rottened, nauseating system by 1) using super-national governement like the EU to undemocratically impose legislation including military and 'green' making people poorer and nations more in debt, 2) allowing large funds like Blackrock to swoop in and steal resources - like homes, farms, companies, factories, land, water, power, etc., 3) use war to steal from other places in particulalr to dismantle and steal Russian natural resources, the richest nation in the world... there would many more numbers but I'll stop there. Money for nothing.

So... gold, once for me unimagined, is a hedge against these ongoing scenarios no longer the least unlikely but actually ongoing, even accelerating. This was the first suggestion given after 'caution' last year, in March, and is still valid - surprisingly maybe even more so. It's up close to 50 percent since then. Anyway...

(Disclaming note to anyone perusing: for now, I've none of these things - those who know me know the primary cause. He did actually steal literally every thing. Just suggestions these and no conflicts of interest. For now.)