1,000,000,000 per year for 1,000 years. In 1 year. Monday Money.
(2013)
3 months have passed since I followed the markets. That hasn’t happened since I was 15, maybe 14. Then and until a few years ago the markets were descriptive, a metaphor of the world. Where that metaphor described incorrectly - you could find opportunity, even in terms of percentiles and percentages. Strong returns. The world, or pieces of the world, kept on its way in any case and the market, sooner or later, paid its own price for its own mistaken valuations.
Today - that’s been reversed. The world has become a metaphor for markets and is or will be the world itself to pay for financial markets’ mistakes. Absurd yet that’s where we are.
The Monti government has turned out to be much more disquieting than the preceding one (Berlusconi): Italy has very often been used as a sort of test site, maybe because the odd sticky adaptability of its culture-language relative to other nations. What is happening here, now - an undemocratic, unelected government that nevertheless is described as legitimate - still wouldn’t be possible in Anglo-Saxon countries. At least pro-forma if little else, the notion of democracy there remains - maybe for their inflexible nouns. You can qualify their nouns with adjectives or other but only as far as you can - the noun itself remains the same. That is: ‘if it looks like it, smells like it and tastes like it, it probably is.’ Shit, that is.
The world, our world, would be much better off if it were to return to being the source of metaphores, not financial markets. (-update - Because, well… the world more than merely having become Dada - is now quite insane. I should add in case many people dont follow global politics at all - since then, with Monti being the first, Italy has had Draghi but more: France, Germany and Canada have followed the pattern of Italy, Blackrock-Goldman Sachs-Rothschild men, bankers, directly. As Monti. As Draghi...) As one rather laconic Anglo once noted: ‘There’s no money in poetry but there’s no poetry in money either.’ (original Italian below)
(2025)
-so-
It’s been a month since opening this little pratice portfolio, April 3rd. As of the close on Friday, a 9.8% return vs the 3.4% of the S&P; beta, downside in particular, has been quite contained - see the graph below. Half cash while the positions themselves are already relatively what is described as diversified - preferable would be to use the notion of adoptable to various scenarios.
Effort, mine… has been low, admittedly. Most of any work was done before while since… I haven’t found much that speaks clearly: ‘the markets have this wrong - buy me or sell me.’ Valuations even in Health are not fundamentally refering to reality but to themselves. One can expect as of today, the 4th of May, further drops to come. (A., I promise this time I’ll actually drop a short video giving some reasons as to why, from the inevitable drop in these historically oddly strong profit margins to the crisis in fiat money, particularly the dollar, pound and euro.) Geopolitics and policy count so much more now than before. All that money created over the past few decades, accelerating over the past 2, looking for something to buy. 93 percent... let me repeat that: 93 percent… of the S & P market valuation was held at the beginning of 2024 by only 10 percent of people. That’s gotten much more concentrated since: during 2024, the 19 wealthiest people in the US increased their net worth by over a trillion dollars. Repeat: 19 people, 1 year, 1 trillion. That’s 1,000,000,000. Ie, 1 billion annually for one thousand years. In only one year.
-so-
Two weeks ago I went through gold, last week silver. Next on the holdings list: Komatsu. Again: scenario. It’s a… pick, dynamite and strainer for a possible gold rush, so to speak. Mining and heavy industry. Think Caterpillar. But better placed for Chinese and Asian stimulus than Caterpillar. Good margins, not so expensive on the earnings side (in the 9-10 to one region), price-sales is under 1.3 trailing, expanding in battery and electrification tech. Note: it’s one of those companies that most likely you can buy for less, maybe a lot, later during the year. Revenues could drop off regionally by a good bit. But if the fall-off doesn’t come and somehow all this crap gets at least partially worked out… it’ll do fine. And will do fine in any case. It’s an indirect play on commodities and Asian growth and stimulus.
To repeat a caution: I’m more expecting stocks in the US to fall a good bit more within the year. How much - who knows. 20 percent? Would be appropriate (as in to return to more normal valuation parameters) so,more than 20 percent on the whole, transiently. Well… enough for today.. What music shall one play on such a boring note in such an absurd time? Ah....got it. See above. Lyrics below. And,as usual: disclaimer: for now, I've none of these things - those who know me know the primary cause. He did actually steal literally every thing. Just suggestions these and no conflicts of interest. For now.)
(Sono passati più di 3 mesi da quando seguo i mercati finanziari. Non succede da quando ne avevo 15 anni. Allora, come fino a pochi anni fa, i mercati erano una descrizione, una metafora, del mondo, e là dove sbagliava c'era la possibilità di guadagno, anche in termini di percentuale relativamente molto bene. Il mondo, o pezzi di esse, andava comunque sulla sua strada e il mercato prima o poi pagava il conto dei suoi stessi sbagli di valutazione. Adesso è rovesciato. Il mondo è diventato una metafora del mercato, ed e, e forse sara, il mondo a dover pagare i sbagli del mercato, per quanto e assurdo. Almeno e così dove stanno portando gli, come dire, uomini del disastro. Il governo Monti è molto più inquietante di quello precedente. L'Italia è sempre un po' un laboratorio, forse a causa della lingua-cultura, per altri nazioni. Quello che succede qui adesso, un governo non-democratico che comunque viene descritto come legittimo, non sarebbe ancora possibile nei paesi Anglo-Sassone. Almeno pro-forma, anche se poco altro, il concetto di democrazia rimane, forse per i nomi non variabili. Si può qualificare con un aggettivo, ma solo finché si può. Ovvero si dice 'if it looks like shit, smells like shit, and tastes like shit, it probably is'. (Se sembra la merda, odora come la merda, e sa di merda, probabilmente merda e.) Sarebbe meglio che il mondo torni ad essere il generatore di metafore, non il mercato. Come diceva un buon Anglo Sassone 'Non ci sono soldi nello scrivere poesia. Per altro, non c'è poesia nei soldi.')
E, La Vita La Vita
C'è, c'è chi soffre soltanto d'amore
chi continua a giocare al dottore
c'è chi un giorno invece ha sofferto
e allora ha detto "io parto
ma dove vado se parto
sempre ammesso che parto".
Ciao!
A chi sbaglia a fare le strissie (Ciao!)
l'altro invece ci ha avuto un sinistro
e c'è sempre li quello che parte
ma dove arriva se parte.
E, la vita la vita
e la vita l'è bella, l'è bella
basta avere l'ombrella, l'ombrella
ti ripara la testa,
sembra un giorno di festa.
E, la vita la vita
e la vita l'è strana, l'è strana
basta una persona, persona
che si monta la testa,
è finita la festa.
C'è c'è chi un giorno ha fatto furore
e non ha ancora cambiato colore
c'è chi mangia troppa minestra
chi è costretto a saltar la finestra
ma dove arriva se parte.
Ciao!
A chi sente soltanto la radio
e poi sbaglia ad andare allo stadio
c'è chi in fondo al suo cuore ha una pena
c'è chi invece ci ha un altro problema
e c'è sempre lì quello che parte
ma dove arriva se parte.
(repeated chorus)
.jpeg)
Comments
Post a Comment