Size Matters. (Market Porfolio Update, October I)

disclaim (Note to anyone perusing: for now, I've none of these things - those who know me know the primary cause. Just suggestions these and no conflicts of interest or certified advice. Investing, or betting, is always problematic and filled with risk. Then again, so can be eating a pizza.)

 (October Portfolio Update: I: Size Matters; II: Exiting The Time Of Dada; III: Introducing The Averse Investor)

.….but not that much. Too small - you better learn to use alternatives; too big - you can hurt someone in some positions. And whoever’s on the receiving end might not know exactly what to do with it. Size matters. So do attention, patience, trust and probably most of all, timing.

First: the practice portfolio begun in early April, the hedges for which were basically pushed through hastily and, well, overall it hasn’t really been looked at since late June. It’s a small fund, 100,000. I put in one rule: 24 max only equity positions, trimmed it in, put in the orders, and let it go. 20 percent return as of the close on October 16th. Which would despite the lack of attention or work, put it in the top 3 percent of hedge funds.

Next was: a brief notion in July to practice a little on a more classically balanced 30-70, 500K portfolio - which I set up too strictly and so replaced last month. Similar deal though and even though abandoned in September it has a 9.4 percent return.

For the fun of it: for me today a seemingly massive 10 million thing in August, a no real rules portfolio. Something to start getting used to options and forex trading. Likely it, to, will be abandoned (the final more realistic fund begun last month includes everything, began with a million and is there to mimic the roughly average portfolio, a bit smaller but about there, size of most friend’s holdings) but it is sort of fun getting used to such. It will likely, until played, dance a bit. Up 5.55 percent in these 2 months,currently at 2/3rds cash.  It has helped the options practice as mentioned - see the 2nd picture below. 

This is the ‘real’ fund, actually fewer positions than it likely seems. Many are normal ETF’s and the largest are either hedges or spec. maturity bond ETF’s (Blackrock. Horrid company but useful products.) The limit on companies really remains, well, what’s already in the fund. Any more and… you loose the ability to grip information. Note: most are small or tiny companies. Large companies… are practically worlds to themselves. No one really knows a business of, say, Amazon all the way down. There… you operate mostly in the dark and hope for the best. Anyway, as the others (not the 10 million fun one) it, too is quite hedged or relatively ‘safe’ but is being done more patiently. Never the less, it is up 4.97 percent in these… 6 weeks. 

Basically…not much has changed, if one were to look at the blog posts from last year. No real mistakes: in 2024: Jan, caution, Mar, gold, May., volatility, Jly, copper, Sept, nuclear energy, Nov., no fresh money to equities but sell into expected rallies and diversify into emerging markets and harder assets and maturity bond funds, Dec.: volatility again and BRICS plus articulation of scenarios (ie, silver and miners; some spec companies researched, ecc) 

In 2025…. Well, it’s there in the blog. Expected melt-up followed by, at best, stagflation. Hedge. And health care specifics for expected impressive and disconcerting increases in some diseases in context of where real research is pointing ie immunotherapy in inflammatory or auto-immune and cancer, non-opioid pain relief, etc. Then for AI: soft and smart (hence Innodata) and hard and expansive (hence Coherent) and for other articulation stuff: mining and long term commodities, differing energy for longer still, some emerging market smaller cap, etc.  This is the ‘all aboard’ practice thing and something of a proposal to a friend…who maybe regrets not following some suggestions. Sometimes even in such a short span, let alone from 20  months ago, the difference can be… well, huge. 

I’ll…go through these holdings one at a time on video mostly, which is faster.

 

...then one can go into more flavorful things which few actually care at all about, appropriately. Things like: what is risk (more fundamentally than almost always presumed,) how do systems express (mistakes and not so); the differences, unbridgeable, between computation and understanding; what is language and how influential is it, are they, in determining systemic expressions, etc,etc, etc....

This a quick note to maintain a promise to put it up today. But upcoming next:

II…exiting the time of Dada, of managers and whores, of wealth and hypocrisy. 

…’GET your delicious bubble crises candy heeere-ya’, right HERE-AH they are, we-e got’em, only 25 cents or 5 for a dolla’, get’em here-YAH, Aa-ll your favorite flavors: crises in the UK-France-I-INdoneeSiA that’s i-In.done-siA or would a JA-PAN pique your interest, tori ni kite, or we got spicy Ven-ez-ualllllA - like something straight out of a Hollywood writer’s caffe, or something more, oh, idk (or idf) IN-YOUR-FACE: we got a Qatar - with Gaza cities on the side, only 5 cents each. We got strange murders i-In the US, i-In the Ukraine, i-In Pakistan or would some like a Nepal, that’s right, our mountain herbal NEpal - on sale right now. WE got more mundane cia’s and mi-6 ’s and mussadinis in Az-erbaijan, in Ma-cedonia, in Iran, in this-stan, that-stan, my stan, your stan, (we all scream for Turkenistan,) a-and the old favorite i-a’s, S-Eerbia, Ro-ooMAnia or how about a land or two Like a Fin-land or a Green-land (sorry we’ve run out of China-land) but don’t stop meh’now (or should I say feh-feh-feh’now, wo-hoo!,): We’rrrrrre just getting stArted…and then we’ll head south.’