Market Outlook 2026, Part II: Intrinsity.
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link to part 1
It’s a word that, ‘soul’, not so well-defined yet heavy-laiden with other stuff: religion, love, intrinsity - not a recognized word that last but it is the proper one nonetheless. Has to do with the soul of the meaning I’m trying to get to: a shared partial understanding of what’s trying to be put across. Shared. Synchronized but topologically, not narratively or even only physiologically. The opposite of what’s going on in the world, at least what is called the western part, where meaning and resultant synchrones are being forced into the least fundamental, where all time all is shoved into the present and understanding confounded with cell-phone-screen-transmitted computation. Lines of code much more limited and dead than intelligent and alive. (A double irony: I just googled that un-word, intrinsity, for kicks and found - it’s now the name of a semiconductor company bought by Apple 15 years ago. What’s in a name. Ho. Ho.) Artifactor. What will become of 'googled'? Or English for that matter? And if English disappears, how would that change the dominant form of capitalism? What is the dominant form today?
It’s that penultimate thingy, the semiconductor thing, rather the page that appeared on this real c-book I’m typing on when prompted with ‘intrinsity’, that I want to get to. And what: chance that becomes connection. That is: the unwritten, non-coded as it were, that leads to altering and new - unpredictably new. Complex emergence and how that is possible for us but fundamentally impossible for AI - now and likely ever. And the difference between some thing alive or a thing-some not. Between stratified synchronies of connection. And not. (Forgetting, what we call forgetting, is likely an important, maybe necessary, part of that. It's tied to hidden-ness and the observing vs the observed, I think. Indeed: I'd, what most would call 'I', forgotten about this note - all the preceding lines before this last parenthesis were written some months ago in 2025 then re-discovered this eve in 2026. So what I'd thought I would have been writing has been altered by the re-discovery. To say: chance is not so much chance but maybe more a form of forgetting.)
One supposes the idea should be connected to something more, or at all, germane to this blog-soon-cum-chanel on markets and (yeuuuaawch) geopolitics, mostly. Fine. Maybe it will. Anyway....
Maybe the most pleasurable aspect of doing stuff in financial markets is the lack of having to... sink. Into clearly confounding discussions. No 'conspiracy theorist'. No 'you're a woke idiot' or 'you're an idiot maga'; no 'Putin troll' or 'liberal asshole' or more - no superficially refered to poor studies on this or that; no free-market or covid s-proteins or Keynes or T-cells or history of Donbas or any arguement on less or more fundamental aspects of anything, really. PhD's and lanaguages spoken don't count. The results are there, clear, clean, fully delineated. Certainty. The models from which you operated either gave the wanted results or the unwanted results demonstrate those your models were incorrect. Financial markets once expressed refer and recur only to themselves. They are... meaningless. (Aside: For this note we'll leave alone how the market has changed into a mechanism that suppresses reality and now even suspends representing reality, and rationality, also by its addiction to passive investing. Its purpose has changed, become not just self-reflecting but even insisting on extending that expression of itself out into the world, in this present. It has, in short, become a psychopath.)
And in their way, relatively easy or at least have always been, to me anyway. Those sorts of things just are and always have been. Those few who knew me in High School - when I began following markets and making first suggestions for, then managing, my father's portfolios - will maybe recall the NFL betting ring, pretty much the same deal in pretty much the same way.
One should note: 'easy'....that's an incorrect word out of context. Even for the football bets thing: you have to study quite a bit, really, and look for and absorb information from as many places and ways as you can for some time, digest, write stuff down, develop soecific relational models. Read - a lot. Listen. Then, for me anyway, always place rules, absolute ones, to try to minimize the human mistakes that any human system will have and also have ways to correct them - which means upkeep and evolving. Less involved than the start-in learning and testing phase but nevertheless a bit consuming. Ie, in NYC - and the year before - the amount of gathering and study for what was projected to be a small hedge fund with a friend... well, the amount of work really isn't calculatable. 55 hours a week? 60? More? You even directly elaborate gathered information in your sleep, honing relevant useful pathways while diminishing others. Anyway....
Much as my father's account(s) I divided into differing aspects so is this practice portfolio, partially, multifunctional. Then, as usual, consistent total returns, which means income as well as cap gains, and lack of downside volatility were objectives. Which meant income from different places and capital gains both from the 'fund of funds' I set up via a mutual fund company that didn't charge for transfering, and single positions, almost always equity ones. Markets have changed dramatically since then, the 80's, though mostly over the past 15 years or so. For most people, still, those two portfolio objectives remain - in addition today to performance valuations by comparing to some sort of benchmark. Before getting to spec.'s, a disclaimer:
disclaim and all: (Note to anyone perusing: for now, I've none of these things - those who know me know the primary cause. He did actually steal literally every thing. Just suggestions these and no conflicts of interest or certified advice. Investing, or betting, is always problematic and filled with risk. Then again, so can be eating a pizza.)
So. Get to this - here I am the next day begrudingly typing these lines. Aside other considerations (see the year-end December post link above,) this equity market doesn't have much to do with valuation. Valuations by any historic or logial arguement are waaaaaaay over. It only, for now, has to with liquidity and the willful division between asset owners and everyone else. Few likely understand: It's not a left-right thing at all. It's an up-down thing and those on the up side of the thing... want everything as in every, thing. And the Dada (see earlier posts) nightmare, now ending, had mostly to do with, suppositionally, not an internal battle of so-called elites (why the word? I mean, really, elite?) between good guys and bad but between factions in disagreement as to what is the best way for them to steal everything from everyone else. So... fiat currencies 'no' while gold, yes. Because on all roads, criminal, stealing finance will lead and has been leading to that: gold for a period de facto as the reserve currency. That's why it's been my first suggestion to everyone over the past 2 years now. And dividing up the world or trying to, so stuff in the ground like copper and silver and mining. And all that energy needed to do stuff so nuclear, coal and so on. That hasn't changed, and in part why the practice account designed for a friend is up just under 23 percent over these 19 weeks or so with very low volatility vs the S&P's 7 and a quarter. Over the past few days a good bit of the silver has been sold/excercized as well as a little gold while preceding, some gold and silver producers were bought. The percentages on the options have been, well, insane. (options are contracts for 100 of a thing at a price on a certain future date, below on the future prices of gold 'gld' and silver 'slv' etf's. Most of the silver has been sold and about a third of the gold.) I would buy more gold directly and metal producers/miners on a downturn. The ibit is put on the bit-coin etf. A put option, just in case, is basically a short sell.
As mentioned, this practice account was originally set up in prep to give easily accessible advice to a friend for his conservative 401 K - though I think quite foolishly he did not consider it - as well as a couple others. In addition, to get used to using options for my own accounts later - which I'd never used before. Hence were this a represented more a full hedge fund as it likely will become, results to now would have been ... different.
It's late but I mentioned put this up or start to anyway today so... I'll only do a few stocks now and see if later tonight or tomorrow or this weekend I'll explain others and more. So... On the non -biotech stocks... MGYOY, Hungarian energy, long buy and hold but more toward the 4's or so. CALM, awful company whose entire senior management team would deserve to be drowned in unwhipped egg-white vats. But well positioned - eggs - un-leveraged basically and meat prices will continue to soar. Another buy and hold long on a fall, say in the 70's. There's something very fishy in the state of beef production. COHR has flown, optic symptoms and materials, (Lisa's cataracs op. will likely be removed using one of its lasers,) benefits from thing that go boom and from those very, very, very disquieting data centers being and to be built. (What will actually be their purpose?) 140's would be the buy. CSUAY - China is already the dominant nation state. Within a decade, more like half a decade, that will have been universally accepted. Energy... will be needed. Teck - great company, copper and now zinc. Buy in the 30's. INOD - has already flown and I would be weary of upcoming competitors now that data-center funding is drying. Still, the sort of company I would have tried to begin a dozen years back. A bit of a risk but a nibble at 40 or so. KMTUY - Japan mining and construction equipment. Hold and hold, buy at 25. MGY- no debt, conservative,inevitable. US energy. If it can be got at 15, to be had. Later on the biotech, though in the meantime many have gone popcorn.... PS...The markets have opened. As of now, about 11am NYC time Jan. 29... the practise account is up
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