Over Where? February Portfolio Update.

 

Feb. 22nd

Sigh. I don't know if the USA will be hair-brained enough to actually do a war thing in Iran, a missle and air war thing, though the odds have sort of soared from less than 5 percent, say, to over 55 percent over the course of the last couple weeks. One gets tired of all this death and suppression of better, happier alternatives. It's a fear thing, a systemically carried fear thing, all that my-our-side, their-your-side, kill-kill-kill in the name of God, in the name of we the better, we the chosen. And an abstract thing, a money-finance-thievery thing. I'm but a peace-loving, honest goy-boy. Hoho. 

So. The practise portfolio, 24 weeks in, is up 21.7 (vs the S&P 6.4) percent with a very high risk-adjusted alpha and relatively low beta, which would put it, were it a hedge fund, in the top 2 percent. Considering that includes a start-up phase during a bull market, that the platform is rather limited (to US markets and only a partial forex) and that it's a part-time, one person hobby, well, not bad. 

disclaim and all: (Note to anyone perusing: for now, I've none of these things - those who know me know the primary cause. He did actually steal literally every thing. Just suggestions these and no conflicts of interest or certified advice. Investing, or betting, is always problematic and filled with risk. Then again, so can be eating a pizza.) 

The only thing... it sort of started also as an exercise for a friend's portfolio and as a help to a few others. But... I'm thinking none of them, rather foolishly, have bothered to follow the suggestions. Heck, I was feeling guilty even a bit ashamed that I hadn't bothered to suggest stuff in the past which would have made... a substantial financial difference, particularly during covid, for some people I care for, much. (Of one in particular I'm sorry about - though he didn't know, well, that my adult measured IQ was 170 he does know I'd done this to basically weird success for a long time before all that... shit hit the family fan, as it were, and that also my childhood IQ was estimated at 150. Numbers, dumb things which though not meaning anything, really, still that 'anything' sort of implies never the less more than having merely a broker's license and infinitely more than any phd in finance or economics let alone an MBA. Regarding personal portfolio management... beware of all the above but most of all that last.)

Above was mentioned 'also' regarding reasons for doing the game-practice. The primary reasons, the also, were to get used to fiddling in markets again after such a long pause, yes, as well as to learn to use both forex (currency) and options in context - which I'd never used. And have been... actually pretty frickin easy. More, along with the change in markets over these dozen years... admittedly the modelling is less wearisome as well. More, much, dependant on learning that horrible word - geopolitics - but less, well, regression analysis and the like. Anyway, ongoing there, currently:  

...what to do now? Well, if you're not already positioned...go slow, and expect a very wild ride. But the same suggestions beginning already from 2 years ago remain valid. Newer things of late, places to go to, cautiously, as well but... that'll likely be brought up later this week. It's late-ish and I'm not really up to typing boring words which, even if read, won't apparently be considered. So I'll simply put up a partial list of equities here below as well and say - take a gander if you please but do the research for each one you consider before taking any action. And in case: there are a few shorts so note the minus lines in front if they are.