Brief 50 week update; the next, more aggressive, 'aa' portfolio; and introducing Youtube and Substack.

 contest link to view portfolio 'all aboard',

disclaim and all: (Note to anyone perusing: for now, I've none of these things - those who know me know the primary cause. He did actually steal literally every thing. Just suggestions these and no conflicts of interest or certified advice. Investing, or betting, is always problematic and filled with risk. Then again, so can be eating a pizza.)

So... 50 week result: 31.62% on the capital defense 'all aboard' portfolio (vs 14.3 the benchmark of an average of spy and aor, the S&P and 60-40, etf's. Or: 10% for aor, 23% for qqq and 18.7 for SPY) In effect fairly impressive given the conservative profile (the portfolio has never been below a third in cash and bonds). The dada historic spring rally in response to the Iran deal was... relatively nasty, with the portfolio fading 8 percent. Still, it's never been below, after the first month set-up, even the SPY results by compare and has happily come to new highs as the tech bubble fizzles. And, though the subject is for a different post regarding portfolio theory and risk, it has always been more well-placed defensively than nearly any mixed bond-equity fund. (In case: A: it's what I used to do and still do. It's... easy. Still. Not 'easy' in any sense of ... time and breath - ie, in NY  it was 'easy' but I was sponging information not 40 or 50 or even 60 hours a week but... in effect more, always, even in my sleep as less useful pathways were dissuaded in favor of predicted more useful ones. The method was a bit different - less or nearly no geopolitics but more on regression analysis and numbers, for asset management but still 'everything, everywhere' regarding reading-listening-seeing information and comapring to how the market was modelling and valueing the world, as now. Now is more listening and less number crunching but.. still pretty much the same, really.)   

All Aboard has pretty much gone to passive management since late June with good-to-date orders. I look in every 10 days or so and fiddle a tad but.. it's on cruise control. The platform also isn't 'infinite' so more than likely it'll be closed within a year. The next, slightly more aggressive portfolio, 'all aboard 2', begun the first of July, is already set. Lots of overlap but more refined. And yes, despite the changes: up 8.12% vs a minus 1.1 for the benchmark average of QQQ and AOR. Or by compare: aor up .7, qqq down 2.9 and spy up 2.4 (dividends included.)  Top holding below: 

For now most of the hedges remain in both portfolios - things are quite a mess. For other stuff.. look over old posts. Things haven't actually changed save some scenarios that were least unlikely have become instead probable or already coming to pass.  

Videos coming soon. 

substack

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