FI-FY-FO-FUM! ...fafo. Or: What's up, doc? Beep-beep

... that's about right, the photo-meme description above, and a more direct translation of the acronym: 'Fuck Around', don't do the work but shove it in like quarters in a slot machine, 'Find Out', which actually has much more to do with context and emergence - topologies and synchronies - than the mere 'FO' implies. No one and no thing ever - as in can ever - know. What. Comes. Next. Here. Or there. Not even the whole of the universe itself. Let alone an utter comic book imitating dunce: 

Good grief what a douchebag. 

But. I did/made the same sort of mistake in the portfolios, considering them not real - though in this case they actually aren't. Lives and such aren't on any line. So after the absurd sky-rocketed results a couple of months or ago, and the resultant measures or benchmarks no longer, at that point, having much relevance (as in the portfolios shattered any comp. benchmark,) instead of putting things tidily away, I 'threw dice'. And lost bad, knocking round about 17 % off All Abord 2 and something like 16% off All Aboard. 

That still left the benchmarks shattered (for All Aborad 'I' - 26.29% gain since inception the 8th of September 2025 vs 18.15 for the Q's, 17.03 for the SPY's and 7.31 for a 60/40, dividends included. For AAII: +34.5 since its inception the first of July this year vs -.5 or so for a 60/40; -.6 for the Q's and +1.0 for the SPY's.) Both funds on average have maintained over 33% in bonds and cash during any 15 day period. Actually usually, maybe always, over 40%. These are bar-bell, headged approaches or funds, in contrast to portfolio asset allocation and equity fund  diversification theory. Less efficient according to doctrine - but the notion of portfolio theories, aside from the most,well, the most obvious delineations observable from outside the field. Ie, Like in Italy they say 'you've discovered hot water. Throw in the pasta.'

Still, watching them drift steadily down was a learning thing. Even for such forms of practice, being dumb or lazy can be nearly completely avoided without effort, actually with almost negative effort (one does at least summarily look before leaping. Not leaping at all spares you at least the effort of prolonged looking and the jump itself, let alone the dis-comfortable fall and bruise-causing landing.) And re-introduces limitations: I'm not putting any more effort or time into this, basically, until later. No sense, then, trying to hammer square pegs into reaaaly tiny circular holes. 

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Last post here I warned of what the market itself was indicating: war escalation and social unrest in the US (which was presumably extendable to the EU,) even to the point of nuclear. The nuclear use threat has diminished a bit according to markets but the rest, at least until yesterday, the 2nd of November. Yesterday there seemed to be a shift into a presumed less-war period. We'll see. 

The fall in the added dice-micro-cap stocks bought after the huge up-bumps implies, well, war or rising rates and inflation deriving from it, and liquidity problems. (Aside: rolling a singular dice is not rolling dice, but rolling a die. 'Nough said.) The relative rise in the also bought stodgy dividend stocks goes in a similar direction - Companies like Sanofi, Unilever, ADM (Archer Daniels) and the like. I'll go through them one at a time during the coming posts, in case anyone is still interested. 

Neither fund had nor has much to do with AI directly, though I am regretful of cashing in the company specific shorts far too quickly. Corelated companies like nuclear and optics (ie Coherent) have been pummeled and some, one in particular (Innodata,) are now facing a changed landscape less by the hyperscaler et al. deflating and liquidity crunch, than, long term, by quite rapidly changing technology and its implications. For now: growth is to say the least at risk, so change and address it in your porfolios. And: short-term, this is the time, mentioned, rather hypothesized, in earlier posts, where if you had bought long-ish bonds, you can actually prune them during the rebound. But it wont last very long, probably. You'll have an opportunity, if that becomes a correct scenario, to re-aquire with higher yields, a bit later. And overall scenario coverage remains quite important, so be weary. Also as mentioned in earlier posts though with a much more abridged timeline now: the happy era of index-passive investment is likely ending. The wabbit is dwi-ing. Not dic-ing. 

disclaim and all: (Note to anyone perusing: for now, I've none of these things - those who know me know the primary cause. He did actually steal literally every thing. Just suggestions these and no conflicts of interest or certified advice. Investing, or betting, is always problematic and filled with risk. Then again, so can be eating a pizza.)