Digging For Gold. February Porfolio Update and 2026 Market Outlook, Part III

 

Digging for Gold

part II

Rough day on Friday, even for the practice portfolio (down over 3%). Not as rough as it might have been had most of its silver and much of its gold already been sold in the preceding days. Still, just in case perspectives get lost: Both silver and gold (spots) are never the less up (as of Sunday morning, February 1st) over 6% in only its last 30 days, 15% over  the last quarter and 35 for the year. The portfolio remains up over 19% vs <7% for the S&P.  Cash still abounds, though less than last Thursday. (Paper gold was bought then sold on Friday though producers and physical (trust) bought and held.) Steady as it goes. 

disclaim and all: (Note to anyone perusing: for now, I've none of these things - those who know me know the primary cause. He did actually steal literally every thing. Just suggestions these and no conflicts of interest or certified advice. Investing, or betting, is always problematic and filled with risk. Then again, so can be eating a pizza.) 

One should note: a short term sell-off in silver in particular was predictable and predicted, gold as well though much less. The measure was artificially induced both by the rising to nearly absurd margin levels (how much of the real stuff funds/ futures contracts have to possess) and the commodity index's masive downward shift in silver, effective from the close of tomorrow (Feb 2nd.) (No, today, Feb 2nd as the clock just slipped past midnight.) It all smells rather funky, sort of State of Denmark funky, as if authorities were trying to save someone's well-reddened rear end before both that end and the someone were rightly cooked. And, maybe, opening the door for some others to take control of more. Anyway, barring the miracle of sensibility and intelligence in world affairs, gold and its producers can be bought and held, silver less though the producers one can and should buy all the more. Future scarcity in the latter is sort of baked in while the re-set of failed fiat money is now much closer than most imagined even a couple years ago. Gold is already de facto an important and increasing reserve currency. Here I will not look for specific companies - others including any reader can put in the (much) work to identify where to go. If not, the usual inefficient but comfy ETFs can be used. 

The severity of the fall does make one pause, however, prompting the question: just how much leverage and passivity is there in these markets?  Equity markets as a whole have mechanisms to stem such abruptivity. But when things do go south, most likely they will, extending the cliche, will it be a mere... Garmin indication 'turn around' or will it be more of a magnetic field pole shift? Will the west be able to keep the fan on so fast that arriving shit will disperse or... is the whole thing, screwed in any case, falling apart beforehand? Maybe the same suggestions from 2024 - caution and sell into rallies, apply. And if you have a normal percentage (40) of stocks... hedging is a very obvious thing to do. 

Back to the portfolio.  After the non-biotech/health stocks in part 2, a quick look at the... 9 (and a half) companies remaining (the half is coherent, COHR, already mentioned. Though everything, of course, is interconnected.) Emerging from the group is a theme which I'll touch on after. And why the biotech/health...well, those sectors made up most of the more speculative market positions basically throughout my life. It's natural, in context. Anyway. 

NUVB,Nuvation. link to company Oncology that has already popped based on trial results of its most important drug and other promising... things. Specific. Hold at least until 8 and keep informed, hence speculative buy now, of course. 

PCRX. Pacira. link to overview. Non-opiod pain relief. Strong hold and speculative buy. 32.  

UTHR. United Therapeutics. profile. Hypertension, lungs, organ translplants. wide range, wide possibilites. 250-600 range. Its fortunes are somewhat inversely related to the competitor below -

- LQDA. Liquidia.  Which has, or would have, the more promising results (PAH) but does not have more distribution and is close to being a one-shot... bird. So hold only and stay informed. 35 - it did pop, indeed, earlier. 

 SKY. Styker.  overview. Advanced med. tech. Hitting pretty well on all cylinders. Surgery and implants. 

TIVC. Tivic. Outlayer. Lottery ticket and sort of...worst case scenario coverage (something of a monopoly for anti-radiation treatment, particularly for the military.) Something of an empty shell with more declared than achieved strategies that, none the less, could skyrocket. If. Has been traded here a fair bit with mild success, currently at maximum holding. Barring anything new, will likely trade between 1.20 to 4. Would be a very speculative nibble at the moment. 

Arcus. RCUS. Another post-pop. Immunotherapy in cancer, anti-inflammatory diseases. Hold, nibble if it falls in a market bash to 15. 

Immunovant. IMVT. Another post-pop, though milder. graph and overview . Automimmune disease, IGg4, ecc. Being, it seems, re-incorporated into its origanl parent comopany, Roivant. 

Finally IBRX, another lottery, another post-pop. whoosh.Immunotherapy, metabolic (mito) and topologic perspective. Brilliant team, excellent results, potentially rather gratifying. 'Hold to 5,' my 'old', less than a month ago, notes mentioned. It's now trading around 6... here, I hold but... it's been a fast ride. Can't say but did buy back some after a fall-off.  

So... 5 (and a half) out of 9 (and a half) 'pops' - rapid gains of more than 50%, even tripling. No permanent losses as yet. 2 in negative territory. As mentioned in part 2: a nice thing that accompanies the meaninglessness of financial markets: you can't actually cherry-pick data. Results are there, to themselves. In most of these  companies mentioned above, well... the areas of medicine they address are and were predictably accelerating drammatically in incidence. Let's say... why was seeing that at the outset that covid wasn't going to be contained and, later, that it had mutated into a form not nearly as fatal as earlier, so clear? No conspiracy theory was needed: the Singapor ministry of health had their marvellous little page regarding patients - who, where, when, condition, treatment, prognoses, etc. Making money via the markets, I'm sure many unsavory people in power did, was quite direct and easy. Propaganda surrounding both the disease and more, the anti-covid injections... fall away in markets. Likewise the way, the approach, of most of those companies also... was predictable some time ago but... usually disdained, then. 

I would expound more but... have to get to something else soon - it's now Monday early afternoon. But to say...presumption is often confounded with arrogance in contemporary English while hubris - which should be in reference to the timeless, the Gods, or reality - is now often reduced to positional vioolations of social hierarchy. An inverse, really: if evidence indicates extant explanations aren't good enough or are even contradicted, not just anomolous - you have to accept a better explanation or model, wherever it comes from. Meaning. Instead, this horrible inversion of the markets being THE reality while trying to reduce reality to mere representations of the market...has extended greadily into dominating at least much if not most of Western culture. More or less... a new form of a doctrine of certainty, quasi-religious. Will finish up the last bit in part 4.