Maria, Mari... (portfolio holdings 3 of 5)

 

...so we're kicking another Persian can down another watered street. Which in context is, if it holds, much, much, much better than the exploding and explosive alternative. One should expect a relief rally generally in most equities though not, of course, in oil producers. The hedged part of the portfolio will likely get clobbered a bit though not enough to entirely counteract the rapid rise, which will include some short squeezing, of long holdings. Maria has yielded to her lover's plea, so to speak. Let's hope their sleep is... long, deep and satisfying. 

Over the past week, as mentioned, a fair amount of trading first selling and shorting then buying and covering, mostly. The cease fire extension was the less predicted outcome of the really dumb conflict and its evolution remains, ah, questionable. Even without the conflict, most market valuations weren't and aren't... rational, as in not much related to reality. Some systems are simply terribly broken, too broken. Anyone can make up a story for anything and if the tellers or listeners believe in those group-reinforced stories - that'll work or can work for a time, even a long time. Reality, though, does tend to step in sooner or later. Or now. You know, sparrows, falls, divinity: the readiness is all. Cash is king, a venom to stack until thrusting it in to let it do its work. 

So the hedges in the portfolio will remain. If silver bounces, however, I'll likely be reducing exposure. But... we really aren't far away, I think, from the sparrow's fall.

The usual disclaimer:disclaim and all: (Note to anyone perusing: for now, I've none of these things - those who know me know the primary cause. He did actually steal literally every thing. Just suggestions these and no conflicts of interest or financial advice, certidfed or not. Investing, or betting, is always problematic and filled with risk. Then again, so can be eating a pizza.) 

..As of roday's open, still as flat as crepes overall since the war thing, a dozen weeks, up 24.15% since inception (Sept 8th, '25) vs. total SPY returns of 15.2 over the same (dividends included.) 

part 1 

part 2

part 3: 

1) IBIT. Bitcoin. It's basically not possible to value the stuff. Or non-stuff, depending on your view. But the stuff-non-stuff, which I suggested to a few acquaintances to unconsider near the beginning of '25 (when it was trading at over 90k,) it's an asset class that actually has some value and, given the messes we're in, not a bad tiny side dish to put on the table.

2)IBRX. As mentioned in earlier posts one of the few pleasurable things about eating the markets is - clarity instead of story, delineated event - fact - instead of institutional judgement. One doesn't argue about whether it's a good idea to teach someone's immune system to hyper-produce something which will likely be toxic to them unless the real risk-benefit is evident. (IE, if an s-protein by itself will cause fatalities in zebra fish via in effect every organ system... maybe you should pause to try to understand why and how a little more before applying it universally to all people.) You simply look at the results, investigate and then develop strategies which might profit from them. Immunitybio. It popped not long after being bought here and is no longer something to grab without digging further in. Here it's already in gravy.

3-4-5) US gv. bond maturity ETF's, 26-27-28. (IBTG-H-I). Until erecently that's the ladder thing you could extend.. today one should, actaully has to be, careful.

6) IJR, small cap etf. Good for now... but things aren't convincing. Or: there's at least a chance one could buy the ETF later at cheaper.

 

7)IMSR: nuclear, salt, safe, long as in looong and very slow. Sell if it bubbles, hold for the looooooong inevitable. 

8)IMVT. Core speculative holding, IgG4 again, already popped on promising results. Of course speculative core, not core-core.

9) INOD. Core-core, already popped, in gravy, 'smart' AI.

10)JETS, Airline ETF, shorted. Probably screwed, what remains, for awhile after the Iran pause. 

11) KMTUY. Core-core, 'smart' mining. 

12) LAND, ETF, hard to find decent agg etf's  but the idea is straightforward.

 Anyway, I'm falling asleep as I write this. Time for a nap with Mari. 

Next week part 4.

S