Sell in May and Walk Away

 

link to first bit of equity holdings in the portfolio 

...which was, a good bit, done earlier last week though some things were then bought or re-bought on Thursday and Friday - then a bit unexpectedly a lot more today. So it could be 'Buy in May to Grove the Sway'. Anyway. As mentioned over the last couple of years, the empire is failing but while doing so - despite inevitability - it is provoking the world into war. 

link to relevant old posts: 

Bon Cao de Ano. Happy New Year.

My side-your side

from dada to war

....stratified levels to that, the war thing, in many ways, even if following the simplest of narratives. The dominant war thing directly remains that of a very few who wish to take everything, as in every-thing, for themselves and either eliminate or enslave the remaining rest (of us. You know - people. Or as large tech senior management terms us: 'stock' like beef or pork.) 

   The sort of next-wrung dominant direct war seems more a continuing diatribe between factions or gangs of the wealthiest as to what's the best way to steal everything - whether it would be better to accelerate differing  'depopulizations', you could call them, or pump up the ongoing modernized fuedal system, extending it everywhere into everything. Extinction vs subjugation. (We should really note: we don't have functional democracies anymore in nearly all developed countries, merely oligarchies with occasional meaningless elections at national and international levels, at least, that impact neither policy nor passed legislation. That's an objective, not really an opinion: policy and legislation have practically ceased to be influenced at all by public intent.) 

Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens 

It's an era in which being a christian, middle-class goy is... disheartening, really. We're stuck in a plier-like grip between one self-identified chosen race and another with a culture that views in turn itself as somewhat above the earth but shy of heaven. The pliers are squeezing ever tighter with malicious intent, provoking us evermore into internal wars of distraction while they use governments to dominate resources, and effectively stolen money to corrupt institutions and stifle any meaningful or consequential change.  

Yet... I've become optimistic. About the direction humanity will take, less so financial markets. The former is for a subject for a different place (perhaps on ketamine). The later.... after the usual disclaimer:  disclaim and all: (Note to anyone perusing: for now, I've none of these things - those who know me know the primary cause. He did actually steal literally every thing. Just suggestions these and no conflicts of interest or certified advice. Investing, or betting, is always problematic and filled with risk. Then again, so can be eating a pizza.) 

As mentioned, a lot of buying over the past few sessions following a ton of selling. From today (the 20th of May, 2026) this portfolio will go mostly passive. To date, the fund is up 24.3% vs total returns on the SPY of 15.3 (from September 8th, '25.) The war-then-historical-bounce has been basically brutal overall as the greatest negative returns, a large majority, are on the hedges and dispertion sort of forced to be increased in order to continue covering as many scenarios as possible, which waters down returns, of course. Add to that the precious metals effects... and the fund as a whole has been about as flat as an uneven crepe over the past three months. (screen shots from the 19th May)

 ...another water, global, ETF was added (as noted last week: the number of holdings has already passed the limits of what I'm willing to... dedicate. ETF's are very dangerous to financial markets as a whole but sometimes useful to individual portfolios. Ie, compare to ice cream.)  

So: 1: DBA - maybe was in last weeks list as well. Mixed agriculture ETF, not great but in effect something of no-brainer in context. Will Hormuz remain half-closed; will El Nino '26-7 be such a devestating monster; will the global drought diminish, and so on. So accumulate if you don't want to dive into individual companies

2: DEM - Emerging market dividend ETF. Again, not much explanation needed, I think. 

3: DNRSF -  metals mining. Junior company, read: risk. Projects in Columbia and Spain, the later the more, management hightly touted. Not really for any feint hearted but potentially quite valuable itself, let alone as part of an inevitable M&A, mergers and aquisitions, target.

4: EEMS - emerging markets small cap ETF. Again, a very obvious idea the results of which will depend on whoever does the large amount of work. Ie, imagine how much should be made in places like Mexico over the coming decades.

5: EWS - Singapore. ETF. Where will all the money from Dubai and company have gone? Another 3-star Michelin coming to a hotel-banking-office nearby? 

6: EWY, shorted, South Korea. Yes, a risky short and an obvious one. Will the AI bubble burst? (80% of its equity market is tied to AI.)

7: FLR - another obvious company, larger cap this time at around 6 billion. Summary of what: which engages in the provision of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC), fabrication and modularization, and project management services. It operates through the following segments: Energy Solutions, Urban Solutions, Mission Solutions, and Other. The Energy Solutions segment focuses on energy transition markets, asset decarbonization, carbon capture, renewable fuels, waste-to-energy, green chemicals, hydrogen, nuclear power, and other low-carbon energy sources. The Urban Solutions segment involves the provision of EPC, project management, and professional staffing services. The Mission Solutions segment includes the technical products to federal agencies and services to commercial nuclear clients.' Expensive-ish but will made a ton of money in the coming years, debt is relatively low and manageable.  May take a transient tumble, in which case buy more. 

8: GDX - gold mining ETF. Senior. 'Nough said. Expect a likely pulling back for various reasons but over time... it's become inevitable, gold, as part of differing resolutions of several extant conditions. Weird. Long options would be an easier way to play it (there are a few in the portfolio of GLD.) Recall the whip metaphor for gold: the metal itself the handle, the first to move, while further down clesest are senior miners, then juniors - that tend to move both last and the most. Been the, my, second recommendation after 'caution' over the last 27 months. link to year-end of '24 post

9-10: GDXJ and GLD. ETF's on junior gold miners and paper gold. See just above and previous post. 

11: GNR - ETF on global natural resources, was just sold a bit, not a great fund but another, in context, no-brainer.  Not sure if I want to hold it given the overall, as I'm sure you'll have noticed, the redundancies already developed in the portfolio.

12: HSTXF - North American (gold) mining. Junior. Technically a sell now though a particularly interesting place in which to put a buck or two. 

This is rather boring, quite so I'll end it here for this week. The next 12 next week.....